Barack Obama has pressed Hosni Mubarak to agree to stand down as president later this year once radical political reforms have been introduced and free elections held.
Obama's message, delivered by a White House envoy, came amid reports tonight that the Egyptian president was preparing a nationwide address to offer a solution to the crisis gripping his country – an offer that would include ending his presidency in September.
According to US advisers, the Obama administration is pursuing an array of contacts – including military, business and intelligence as well as dispatching to Egypt a former US ambassador who is close to Mubarak – in an attempt to manage the political transition.
Former ambassador Frank G Wisner has been sent in to tell Mubarak that the White House wants him to step aside later this year. The US administration is also discussing whether to press for an interim administration, possibly under Mohamed ElBaradei, but is so far undecided on whether Mubarak should go sooner.
Yesterday, the White House called in experts after being caught ill-prepared by events in Egypt. They included Joel Rubin, a former state department Egypt desk officer now with the National Security Network thinktank. He said officials described a multilayered approach that included pushing a public message that the US is not trying to decide who rules Egypt, while making clear to Mubarak that there has to be a quick and serious transition to democratic government.
"There was a decision to get across the public message that this is not about America and they are not picking winners, that they aren't playing the Bush administration game of deciding who runs which country in the Middle East," said Rubin.
"At the same time they are also using unofficial, informal channels – third parties, people who know people, who can get messages across that are pretty compelling, that there has to be a real serious transition to democracy, quickly."
Steve Clemons of the New America Foundation thinktank, who was also at the White House meeting, said the administration has yet to reach a decision on timing. "They don't see Mubarak as being a constructive player moving forward but formally they don't have a mechanism to tell him to go. If Mubarak were to turn around tomorrow, reform quickly, engage in public and civic reforms, the administration would accept that. But they know he's not going to do that," he said. "I'm talking to the highest levels of government and I sense they're still deliberating what to do about Mubarak."
The administration has come under growing pressure to move against the Egyptian leader. But John Kerry, chairman of the Senate foreign relations committee and former presidential candidate, has demanded Mubarak's immediate resignation.
"President Hosni Mubarak must accept that the stability of his country hinges on his willingness to step aside gracefully to make way for a new political structure. One of the toughest jobs that a leader under siege can perform is to engineer a peaceful transition. But Egyptians have made clear they will settle for nothing less than greater democracy and more economic opportunities," he wrote in the New York Times .
Clemons said that the US administration is also scrambling to assess and build relations with the Muslim Brotherhood.
"There's a concern right now about not having much intelligence, much outreach. It came up in the meeting how important it was to begin engaging, that these leaders were not terrorists, that this is not al-Qaida, that they've survived in a very toxic environment and that they are going to be significant in any equation but they're not going to dominate the equation," he said. "Officials I spoke to acknowledged that they needed to begin a process of engaging those who are constructive and to isolate those who are not constructive. But they're not there yet."
Rubin said the White House is trying to frame the terms for Muslim Brotherhood participation in any elections.
"With democratic rights come responsibilities and some of those responsibilities come a commitment to non-violence. Certainly it is going to be essential, as the US has a major strategic interest in this region, to see stability and continuation of the peace treaty with Israel," he said.
Clemons said one of the problems for the White House is a lack of planning for how to deal with a popular revolt against Mubarak. "I don't think any serious scenario building, contingency plans, thought about political transitions was done in the state department, in the intelligence department, in the Pentagon. It's really shocking given the number of years there's been debate about Mubarak surviving, about the succession to his son, about the growing Muslim Brotherhood. I know from senior state department types there was no scenario planning done. Who knows why. They've been caught without those resources," he said.
(source:guardian.co.uk)
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